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| 008 | 091118s2009 njua frb 001 0 eng d | ||
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_a9780470488119 _q(electronic bk. ; _qAdobe Digital Editions) |
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_a9780470488560 _q(electronic bk. ; _qMobipocket Reader) |
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| 020 | _a9781118373576 | ||
| 020 | _a111837357X | ||
| 020 |
_z9780471381976 _q(cloth) |
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| 020 |
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| 035 | _a(OCoLC)ocn466876983 | ||
| 037 |
_bOverDrive, Inc. _nhttp://www.overdrive.com |
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_aBBD8DE32-314E-4C4A-8BB0-5A9728E214C5 _bOverDrive, Inc. _nhttp://www.overdrive.com |
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| 050 | 4 |
_aHB615 _b.S313 2009eb |
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| 082 | 0 | 4 |
_223 _a338.5 _bS.S.T |
| 100 | 1 |
_aSavage, Sam L., _d1944- _0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n97123576 _925445 |
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| 245 | 1 | 4 |
_aThe flaw of averages : _bwhy we underestimate risk in the face of uncertainty / _cSam L. Savage. |
| 264 | 1 |
_aHoboken, N.J. : _bWiley, _c2009. |
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| 264 | 4 | _c©2009 | |
| 300 |
_a1 online resource (xxii, 392 pages) : _billustrations |
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| 336 |
_atext _btxt _2rdacontent |
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| 337 |
_avolume _bn _2rdamedia |
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| 338 |
_bnc _2rdacarrier |
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| 504 | _aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 371-381) and index. | ||
| 505 | 0 | _aThe flaw of averages -- The fall of the algebraic curtain and rise of the flaw of averages -- Mitigating the flaw of averages -- The Wright brothers versus the wrong brothers -- The most important instrument in the cockpit -- MINDles are to MINDs what HANDles are to HANDs -- Mindle 1: uncertainty versus risk -- Mindle 2: an uncertain number is a shape -- Mindle 3: combinations of uncertain numbers -- I come to bury Sigma, not to praise it -- Mindle 4: Terri Dial and the drunk in the road -- Who was Jensen and and why wasn't he equal? -- Mindle 5: interrelated uncertainties -- Decision trees -- The value of information -- The seven deadly sins of averaging -- The flaw of extremes -- Simpson's paradox -- The Scholtes revenue fallacy -- Taking credit for chance occurrences -- Your retirement portfolio -- The birth of portfolio theory: the age of covariance -- When Harry met Bill(y) -- Mindles for the financial planning client -- Options: profiting from uncertainty -- When Fischer and Myron met Bob: options theory -- Prices, probabilities, and predictions -- Holistic versus hole-istic -- Real portfolios at shell -- Real options -- Some gratuitous inflammatory remarks on the accounting industry -- The DNA of supply chains -- A supply chain of DNA -- Cawlfield's Principle -- The statistical research group of World War II -- Probability and the war on terror -- The flaw of averages and climate change -- The flaw of averages in health care -- Sex and the central limit theorem -- The end of statistics as you were taught it -- Visualization -- Interactive simulation: a new lightbulb -- Scenario libraries: the power grid -- The fundamental identity of SLURP algebra -- Putting it into practice -- The CPO: managing probability management -- A posthumous visit by my father. | |
| 506 | _aAccess restricted by licensing agreement. | ||
| 520 | _aAs the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal effectively with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on these kinds of uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. | ||
| 588 | 0 | _aDescription based on print version record. | |
| 590 | _aAccess is available to the Yale community. | ||
| 650 | 0 |
_aUncertainty. _0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139563 _910737 |
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| 650 | 0 |
_aDecision making. _0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85036199 |
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| 650 | 7 |
_aDecision making. _2fast _0(OCoLC)fst00889035 _925446 |
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| 650 | 7 |
_aRisk. _2fast _0(OCoLC)fst01098118 |
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| 710 | 2 |
_aSafari Books Online (Firm) _91672 |
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| 730 | 0 |
_aO'Reilly Safari. _gOCLC KB. _91673 |
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| 776 | 0 | 8 |
_iPrint version: _aSavage, Sam L., 1944- _tFlaw of averages. _dHoboken, N.J. : Wiley, �2009 _z9780471381976 _w(DLC) 2008052144 _w(OCoLC)277196683 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 |
_yOnline book _uhttps://go.oreilly.com/yale-university/library/view/-/9780470488126/?ar |
| 942 |
_2ddc _cBK |
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| 946 | _aDO NOT EDIT. DO NOT EXPORT. | ||
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_c4156 _d4156 |
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