Includes bibliographical references and indexes.

Contents: 1. Introduction to Decision Analysis -- Sect. 1. Modeling Decisions. 2. Elements of Decision Problems. 3. Structuring Decisions. 4. Making Choices. 5. Sensitivity Analysis. 6. Creativity and Decision Making -- Sect. 2. Modeling Uncertainty. 7. Probability Basics. 8. Subjective Probability. 9. Theoretical Probability Models. 10. Using Data. 11. Monte Carlo Simulation. 12. Value of Information -- Sect. 3. Modeling Preferences. 13. Risk Attitudes. 14. Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, and Implications. 15. Conflicting Objectives I: Fundamental Objectives and the Additive Utility Function. 16. Conflicting Objectives II: Multiattribute Utility Models with Interactions -- 17. Conclusion and Further Reading.

Here's a straightforward book that teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis - without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in management science. This new Second Edition of Making Hard Decisions, byRobert T. Clemen, continues to provide readers with a thoroughly enjoyable, easy-to-understand text. The book emphasizes the practical application of decision analysis through interesting case studies and useful exercises that represent the broad range of fields and industries that benefit from systematic decision analysis. Making Hard Decisions also contains up-to-date coverage of modern computer applications. Special attention to the role of the computer in decision analysis, as well as descriptions of the many software packages available - like DPL, Excel, and Data - make this book a handy resource.